How have interest rates expectations changed after the US CPI?

August 13, 2025
-FXnews

Rate cuts by year-end

Fed: 61 bps (98% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
ECB: 11 bps (95% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
BoE: 17 bps (92% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
BoC: 22 bps (67% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
RBA: 40 bps (63% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
RBNZ: 41 bps (90% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
SNB: 13 bps (82% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

Rate hikes by year-end

BoJ: 14 bps (90% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

The pricing for the Fed increased from 57 bps to 61 bps after the US CPI report as the data came mostly in line with expectations and wasn’t strong enough to force a reassessment

How have interest rates expectations changed after the US CPI?

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