How have interest rate expectations changed after this week’s events?

January 16, 2026
-FXnews

Rate cuts by year-end

Fed: 48 bps (95% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
BoE: 43 bps (94% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
ECB: 1 bps (99% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

Rate hikes by year-end

BoC: 10 bps (85% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
BoJ: 44 bps (98% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
RBA: 39 bps (74% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
RBNZ: 35 bps (98% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
SNB: 4 bps (99% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

The most notable repricings happened on the Fed and BoJ fronts. The total easing fell to 48 bps from 54 bps prior

How have interest rate expectations changed after this week’s events?

For News Subscribe Us!

If you wish to receive the weekly market report, please subscribe. For a daily report please go to contact form to speak to the sales team.

Payment Guides

UK Sterling (GBP)

Euro (EUR)

US Dollar (USD)

Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Swiss Franc (CHF)

Australian Dollar (AUD)

Danish Krone (DKK)

Formats and Codes

Useful Links

HUBFX Asia Business Office at
100 Peck Seah St, 079333, Singapore

HUBFX’s payment and foreign currency exchange services are provided by Global Currency Exchange Network Ltd T/A GC Partners. Global Currency Exchange Network Ltd is authorised by the FCA under the Payment Services Regulations, 2017 (FRN: 504346). Registered as a Money Services Business, regulated by HM Revenue & Customs (“HMRC”) under the Money Laundering Regulations 2017. (Registration number is 12137189). Registered in England and Wales. Company number 04675786. Registered Office 3rd Floor 100 New Bond Street, London, England, W1S 1SP

For clients based in the European Economic Area, payment services for HUBFX are provided by CurrencyCloud B.V.. Registered in the Netherlands No. 72186178. Registered Office: Nieuwezijds Voorburgwal 296 – 298, Mindspace Nieuwezijds Office 001 Amsterdam. CurrencyCloud B.V. is authorised by the DNB under the Wet op het financieel toezicht to carry out the business of an electronic-money institution (Relation Number: R142701). For clients based in the United States, payment services for HUBFX are provided by The Currency Cloud Inc. which operates in partnership with Community Federal Savings Bank (CFSB) to facilitate payments in all 50 states in the US. CFSB is registered with the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC Certificate# 57129). The Currency Cloud Inc is registered with FinCEN and authorised in 39 states to transmit money (MSB Registration Number: 31000206794359). Registered Office: 104 5th Avenue, 20th Floor, New York , NY 10011. For clients based in the United Kingdom and rest of the world, payment services for HUBFX are provided by The Currency Cloud Limited. Registered in England and Wales No. 06323311. Registered Office: Stewardship Building 1st Floor, 12 Steward Street London E1 6FQ. The Currency Cloud Limited is authorised by the Financial Conduct Authority under the Electronic Money Regulations 2011 for the issuing of electronic money (FRN: 900199). Please refer to the Terms of Use here.

Payment services for HUBFX UK and US are provided by The Currency Cloud Limited. Registered in England No. 06323311. Registered Office: Stewardship Building 1st Floor, 12 Steward Street London E1 6FQ. The Currency Cloud Limited is authorised by the Financial Conduct Authority under the Electronic Money Regulations 2011 for the issuing of electronic money (FRN: 900199) and The Currency Cloud Inc. which operates in partnership with Community Federal Savings Bank (CFSB) to facilitate payments in all 50 states in the US. CFSB is registered with the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC Certificate# 57129). The Currency Cloud Inc is registered with FinCEN and authorized in 39 states to transmit money (MSB Registration Number: 31000160311064). Registered Office: 104 5th Avenue, 20th Floor, New York , NY 10011

Payment services for HUBFX are provided by The Currency Cloud Limited. Registered in England No. 06323311. Registered Office: Stewardship Building 1st Floor, 12 Steward Street London E1 6FQ. The Currency Cloud Limited is authorised by the Financial Conduct Authority under the Electronic Money Regulations 2011 for the issuing of electronic money (FRN: 900199) and The Currency Cloud Inc. which operates in partnership with Community Federal Savings Bank (CFSB) to facilitate payments in all 50 states in the US. CFSB is registered with the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC Certificate# 57129). The Currency Cloud Inc is registered with FinCEN and authorized in 39 states to transmit money (MSB Registration Number: 31000160311064). Registered Office: 104 5th Avenue, 20th Floor, New York , NY 10011 and CurrencyCloud B.V.. Registered in the Netherlands No. 72186178. Registered Office: Nieuwezijds Voorburgwal 296 – 298, Mindspace Nieuwezijds Office 001 Amsterdam. CurrencyCloud B.V. is authorised by the DNB under the Wet op het financieel toezicht to carry out the business of a electronic-money institution (Relation Number: R142701)

Rates are indicative only. Please log in for getting your rates.