How have interest rate expectations changed after this week’s events?

November 14, 2025
-FXnews

Rate cuts by year-end

Fed: 12 bps (50% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2026: 81 bps

ECB: 1 bps (98% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

2026: 7 bps

BoE: 19 bps (78% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2026: 56 bps

BoC: 3 bps (91% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

2026: 8 bps

RBA: 2 bps (95% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

2026: 12 bps

RBNZ: 25 bps (96% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2026: 40 bps

SNB: 1 bps (97% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

2026: 7 bps

Rate hikes by year-end

BoJ: 6 bps (77% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

2026: 38 bps

*The 2026 pricing reflects the cumulative easing expected by the end of 2026, not how much easing is expected in 2026 alone.

The most notable repricings happened on the BoE, RBA and the Fed side.

It’s curious though that the market didn’t really react much to her comments until the day after, which is when we started to see odds for a December cut dwindle and risk assets selling off

How have interest rate expectations changed after this week’s events?

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