How have interest rate expectations changed after this week’s events?

October 24, 2025
-FXnews

Rate cuts by year-end

Fed: 47 bps (99% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2026: 120 bps

ECB: 2 bps (99% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

2026: 13 bps

BoE: 17 bps (65% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

2026: 64 bps

BoC: 30 bps (82% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2026: 44 bps

RBA: 23 bps (67% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2026: 46 bps

RBNZ: 24 bps (98% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2026: 40 bps

SNB: 2 bps (92% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

2026: 10 bps

Rate hikes by year-end

BoJ: 12 bps (81% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

2026: 43 bps

*The 2026 pricing reflects the cumulative easing expected by the end of 2026, not how much easing is expected in 2026 alone.

It’s been a pretty empty week in terms of economic data and newsflow. Nonetheless, we saw some dovish repricing for the BoE and the BoC. As usual though, we can expect this thing to be short-lived and negotiations to restart very soon.

We still have the US CPI coming up later and that could influence expectations greatly. Of course, the bigger the surprise the stronger the repricing will be

How have interest rate expectations changed after this week’s events?

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