FUNDAMENTAL
OVERVIEW
Gold has come under renewed
pressure on Tuesday after the markets got a bit scared following Iran’s refusal
to participate in the Islamabad talks due to the US blockade in the Strait of
Hormuz.
Most of the losses were
then pared after Trump extended the ceasefire to allow more time for Iran to
put forward a proposal to end the war but didn’t lift the blockade. There’s no
deadline for this latest extension, so we might just get stuck in this new
situation until the bombs start dropping again or they finally reach a deal.
For now, the short-term
bias is neutral to bearish as we head into the weekend without clear signs of
improved relations. Nonetheless, the downside should remain limited amid
positive expectations and a resolution should trigger a rally towards the 5,000
level. On the other hand, if the war resumes, gold prices are likely to quickly
fall back into the 4,000 level.
GOLD TECHNICAL
ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAME
On the daily chart, we can
see that gold is just consolidating awaiting new catalysts to push it into
either direction. Right now, we are trading around the same levels we’ve been
at the start of the month. The natural target for the buyers should be the
downward trendline around the 5,000 level. If the price gets there, we can
expect the sellers to lean on the trendline with a defined risk above it to
position for a drop into the major upward trendline around the 4,100 level. The
buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break higher to increase the bullish
bets into the 5,400 level next.
GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4
HOUR TIMEFRAME
On the 4 hour chart, we can
see the price broke below the upward trendline and opened the door for a bigger
pullback into the 4,550 level. If the price gets there, we can expect the
buyers to step in with a defined risk below the level to position for a rally
into the major downward trendline. The sellers, on the other hand, will look
for a break lower to increase the bearish bets into new lows.
GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1
HOUR TIMEFRAME
On the 1 hour chart, we
have a minor downward trendline defining the current pullback. The sellers will
likely continue to lean on the trendline to keep pushing into new lows, while
the buyers will look for a break to pile in for a rally into new highs
