FUNDAMENTAL
OVERVIEW
Gold got stuck in another
consolidation as the bullish momentum remains weak amid conflicting signals. Yesterday,
it looked like the third round of US-Iran talks went bad as we got reports of
Iran rejecting US demands. The markets went into risk-off, eventually
supporting gold prices.
Later on, we got reports
that the talks
made significant progress and another round was scheduled for next week. This
push and pull is keeping most market rangebound, including gold.
Overall, the market might
remain supported in the short-term amid some uncertainty, but I don’t see
material changes to justify a rally back to all-time highs, at the moment. The
real risks remain a potential US-Iran military escalation which could take gold
prices to new highs or a hawkish repricing on stronger US data which would have
a negative effect on the market.
Fed’s Waller mentioned that
he would change his dovish stance in case the strong January’s jobs data is
repeated in February, so next week’s NFP report is going to be a key risk event
for gold.
GOLD TECHNICAL
ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAME
On the daily chart, we can
see that gold is creeping higher, but the momentum remains weak with many
consolidations along the way. There’s not much we can glean from this timeframe,
so we need to zoom in to see some more details.
GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4
HOUR TIMEFRAME
On the 4 hour chart, we can
see the price is consolidating above the key 5100 zone as traders await new
catalysts to pick a direction. From a risk management perspective, the buyers
will have better risk to reward opportunities around the 5100 support and the
minor upward trendline to position for a rally into new all-time highs. The
sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking below the
trendline to open the door for a drop back into the 4600 level next.
GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1
HOUR TIMEFRAME
On the 1 hour chart, there’s
not much we can add here as the buyers will likely continue to step in around the
support and the trendline, while the sellers will wait for the break of the
trendline to gain more conviction for new lows
