Gold and the US dollar are sending some positive signals as we carefully watch a delicate ceasefire. Rising gold and a slipping dollar are generally good signs for risk appetite and we’ve also seen US stock markets erase losses.
Those moves come despite Israel sending evacuation warnings to southern Beirut and Iran warning it will call off the ceasefire if Israeli strikes continue. The market seems to be drawing the conclusion that either the Israeli strikes will soon stop or that Iran will continue to ignore them.
Gold is up $58 to $4773 and at the highs of the day. Yesterday, gold spike on the ceasefire but steadily gave back much of the gains.
Along with gold falling, the US dollar has softened against the euro and elsewhere. The euro is up 22 pips against the dollar to 1.1684 in a positive sign for markets.
The worry now is oil with WTI crude up $5.02 to $99.41 after Iran said it will only allow 15 ships through Hormuz per day during the ceasefire. Perhaps there is a deal to be made where that can rise if there’s peace in Lebanon or some other concession.
Representatives from the US and Iran will meet in Pakistan this weekend in order to hammer out details of a ceasefire. For now, there are differing versions of what list of points both sides will negotiate around. What is clear, and what the market seems to be betting on is that Trump wants this war to end.
In a post on Trump Social, he said that the US military will remain in place near Iran until there is a real agreement and highlighted nuclear weapons and opening the Strait as key issues
