February 06, 2025 at 03:16PM
All the pieces appear to be falling into place for a deal to end the war in Ukraine.
Earlier this week, I highlighted that Zelensky said they’re ready for a diplomatic track to end the war. Last month, there was also a report saying that Putin believed his key war goals have been met. Trump also campaigned on ending the war.
That said, a desire to end the war and everyone agreeing to satisfactory (and lasting) terms isn’t a easy bridge to build.
The obvious trades on it are buying the euro, European stocks and likely selling oil as Russian flows pick up. That may take awhile to unfold because the terms of any deal are unknown but it would be an added tailwind for the German DAX, which has been strong lately despite a poor economy in Europe. It’s a sign that the market is pricing in better times ahead.
Today the DAX is up 1.2% to a fresh record in a break of January’s high.
I also get the sense that there is a vibe shift ongoing around Europe’s crippling regulatory state.
This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.
