FUNDAMENTAL
OVERVIEW
USD:
The US Dollar weakened
across the board on Friday after the US Supreme Court struck down Trump’s
reciprocal tariffs. The policy uncertainty is what is likely to have weighed on
the greenback because on net, not much has changed.
Trump has already imposed
new tariffs under a different law and USTR Greer has stated that the tariff
deals remain in place and they will be honoured. Moreover, the new levies
actually reduce the effective average tariff rate, so it could be a positive.
The dollar might stay on
the backfoot for now amid the uncertainty, but I don’t think the big picture
has changed much. The real risks remain a potential US-Iran military escalation
which could boost the greenback on severe risk-off mood or a hawkish repricing
on stronger US data which would have a positive effect on the USD.
GBP:
On the GBP side, the
probabilities for a rate cut in March increased to 75% following the much
weaker than expected UK labour
market report on
Tuesday and mostly benign UK CPI data on Wednesday. The pound eventually
fell to a new monthly low before bouncing following the US Supreme Court
decision.
As a reminder, the
BoE surprised with a dovish hold at the last meeting as 4 members
dissented for a rate cut versus 2 expected. Moreover, they changed the guidance
in the statement from “the bank rate is likely to continue on a gradual
downward path” to “the bank rate is likely to be reduced
further”.
GBPUSD TECHNICAL
ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAME
On the daily chart, we can
see that GBPUSD broke below the major trendline
and bounced back to retest it. The sellers will likely step in around the
broken trendline with a defined risk above it to keep pushing into new lows.
The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break higher to extend the
rebound into the downward trendline where the sellers will look for another
short opportunity.
GBPUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS –
4 HOUR TIMEFRAME
On the 4 hour chart, there’s
not much we can add here as the sellers will likely continue to step in around
the broken trendline, while the buyers will look for an upside break to extend
the gains into the downward trendline.
GBPUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS –
1 HOUR TIMEFRAME
On the 1 hour chart, we
have a minor upward trendline defining the bullish momentum on this timeframe.
The buyers will likely continue to lean on the trendline to keep pushing into new
highs, while the sellers will look for a break lower to increase the bearish
bets into new lows. On Thursday, we get the latest US
Jobless Claims figures
