December 18, 2024 at 07:38PM
The GBPUSD moved lower – USD higher – on the Fed decision and in the process move below a swing area between 1.26598 and 1.2670. The 100 hour moving average at 1.26736 was also broken. That area is now topside resistance. Staying below is more bearish.
On the downside, the next target area comes against a swing area between 1.2596 and 1.26147.. A move below that level would then target 1.2565 followed by other swing lows going back to November at 1.2523, 1.2506, and the low from November at 1.24865.
Looking at the daily chart below, the 50% midpoint, also cuts across at 1.26147 increasing the levels importance on both the hourly chart and the daily chart.
Sellers are making a play below the 100 hour MA and the swing area between 1.26598 and 1.2670 with the next support area targeted starting with 1.26147.
Resistance Levels:
Swing Area: 1.26598 – 1.2670.
100-Hour Moving Average (MA): 1.26736.
This area, now broken, acts as immediate topside resistance. Staying below reinforces the bearish bias.
Support Levels:
Initial Support: Swing area between 1.2596 – 1.26147.
This zone is critical due to its overlap with the 50% Fibonacci retracement on the daily chart, increasing its significance.
Further Downside Targets:
1.2565: Key support level.
1.2523 and 1.2506: Swing lows from November.
November Low: 1.24865.
Market Bias:
Sellers are asserting control, pushing the price below the 100-hour MA and the swing area at 1.26598 – 1.2670.
Bearish momentum remains dominant as long as the price holds below this resistance zone.
A break below 1.2596 – 1.26147 could accelerate selling pressure toward deeper support levels.
Key Focus:
Watch for price action at 1.26147, a critical level shared by both the hourly and daily charts.
Failure to hold this level could lead to further declines toward 1.2565 and beyond.
Buyers would need to reclaim the 1.26598 – 1.26736 area to neutralize the bearish bias and signal a potential reversal.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
