Given the fallout from the Middle East conflict, this isn’t surprising. We’ve seen a similar episode before during the Russia-Ukraine war, so this will very much follow the same path. As energy prices keep higher, expect that to have a more significant toll on the French trade balance in the months to come.
For some context, France imports nearly 99% of its fossil fuel consumption. So, one can reasonably expect that to balloon much higher especially if energy prices continue to hold higher – even if not surging to fresh highs. Physical prices remain elevated, even if the situation this week might reflect some calm in futures prices.
The DE category marked above covers everything from crude oil, natural gas, coal, and imported power
French trade deficit widened in March as energy imports start to push up
