ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: Waiting on US CPI then FOMC then Powell

June 12, 2024 at 04:38AM

UBS reiterated their positive view on gold – buy dips

US CPI data due Wednesday, the ranges of estimates to know

Recapping the inflation data from Japan earlier- higher but might slow BOJ rate hikes

ECB speakers on Wednesday include Schnabel, Villeroy, Vujcic, de Guindos

China May CPI +0.3% y/y (expected +0.4%) and PPI -1.4% y/y (expected -1.5%)

China is considering banning banks distributing hedge fund products

PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 7.1133 (vs. estimate at 7.2558)

Bank of Japan left its Japanese Government Bond purchase amounts unchanged

JP Morgan says Japanese stocks have room to go a lot higher

Treasurer Chalmers says visit of China’s Premier Li to Australia an important opportunity

Japan PPI (May) +0.7% m/m (expected +0.4) and +2.4% y/y (expected +2.0%)

HUBFX

Apex Trader Funding / Rithmic users – it looks like the fix is in

UBS says EUR/USD heading as high as 1.11 after short term political headwinds dissipate

BlackRock’s Rick Rieder still expects a Fed rate cut in September, but conviction not high

HSBC says hawkish risk around the FOMC, but buy the dip when it comes

PIMCO expects more US regional bank failures: “The real wave of distress is just starting”

IMF scolds Bank of Canada, should consider better communication of its monetary policy

The European Union is proposing to sanction Russia’s oil-shipping giant Sovcomflot

Oil – private survey of inventory shows a larger headline crude oil draw than was expected

Goldman Sachs forecasts US May Headline CPI @ 3.4% y/y, core 3.5%

Another record close for the Nasdaq and the S&P. Apple hits a new all-time high.

Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: Strong Treasury auction turns the tide

Trade ideas thread – Wednesday, 12 June, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas

Yes,
it’s a huge session coming up from the US today, beginning at 8.30
am US Eastern time with inflation data and then the Federal Open
Market Committee (FOMC) statement, complete with an updated Summary
of Economic Projections (SEP), “dot plot”, at 2pm, with
Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s press conference a half hour later.

Asian
traders were more or less content to not do too much and wait on the
barrage of info ahead. Plenty will be up late/early to catch it all
(ps. Rithmic looks like it’ll be back for the trader-funded folks).

What
we did have of note today was a nine-month y/y high for Japanese PPI.
On the face of it this should encourage the Bank of Japan to further
dial back monetary stimulus, but the problem is the wholesale level
inflation is of the cost-push kind, much of it due to the weak
yen pushing up the price of raw material imports, which
may weigh on consumption, and the broader economy, and further
distance the demand-drive inflation the bank wants to see before
having the confidence to tighten further. Let me know in the comments
how that argument sounds to you, there is more in the ‘Recapping
the inflation data’ post, above.

From
China today we had CPI and PPI data. The CPI held steady at 0.3% y/y
but PPI improved from +2.5% in April to -1.4% in May. The improvement
in the PPI (although still firmly in deflation) gave the AUD a brief
and minor lift.

Across
major FX ranges were very small.

EUR/USD little changed:

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

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