ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: Awaiting Trumps reciprocal tariffs (EUR up!)

February 13, 2025 at 04:43AM

EUR/USD is back at its Wednesday high, gold is higher than its

China has proposed holding a Trump / Putin summit

Taiwan’s Foxconn says it is open to buying a stake in Nissan

New Zealand inflation expectations remained subdued in Q1 2025

The Wall Street Journal says Trump’s call for rate cuts defies inflation reality

Trump will be signing more executive orders on Thursday, February 13 – reciprocal tariffs?

Barclays says a Fed rate cut still expected in 2025, but the risks of no cut is rising

About 75,000 workers have accepted Trump’s buyout program

Reserve Bank of New Zealand inflation expectations: 1yr 2.15% (prior 2.05) 2yr 2.06 (2.12)

Hong Kong’s ‘central bank’ says the PBOC will issue yuan sovereign bonds in HK

Fed likely to stay on hold despite strong CPI, rate cuts expected in Q3

PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 7.1719 (vs. estimate at 7.3000)

More sticky high inflation data, this time from Japan. Bank of Japan March meeting is live

Bank of America: Strong CPI underscores Fed’s caution, rate hikes back in discussion

UK Housing Market Cools Despite Upbeat Surveyors; Positive Outlook Ahead

Australian Inflation Expectations survey for February 2025 4.6% (prior was 4.0%)

Japan PPI for January is +4.2%y/y (expected +4.0% prior +3.8%)

Goldman Sachs revises core PCE inflation forecast higher after CPI report

Trump’s reciprocal tariffs – more on timing

Morgan Stanley hasn’t changed its Federal Reserve forecast despite strong US CPI report

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Survey of Expectations due today can be a NZD mover

Fed’s Waller doesn’t comment on his outlook for the economy nor monetary policy

New Zealand data: January Card retail sales -1.6% m/m (prior +2.4) & -0.5% y/y (prior -1)

Trade ideas thread – Thursday, 13 February, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas

Trump said he may sign reciprocal tariffs today, or tomorrow

The
indications are that Trump is likely to announce reciprocal tariffs
on Thursday. The White House schedule has him signing executive
orders at 1 pm local time, so perhaps that is the timing? Earlier on
it was indicated he may be doing so after his meeting with India’s
prime Minister Modi:

the
two meet at 4.05 pm US Eastern time

the
two hold a news conference at 5.10 pm

We’ll
see.

If
the threat of tariffs is meant to weigh on the EU that was not
reflected in the euro today. EUR/USD rose to circa 1.0430, back to
its post-US CPI high.

If
the threat of tariffs is encouraging ‘safe haven’ flows, well
maybe the gold price movement backed this – it rallied to above
USD2915.

Conflicting
narratives if you are into narratives!

The
dollar was offered more broadly. AUD, NZD, CAD, GBP, CHF all rose.

From
Japan we had a further indication of inflation pressures with the
January PPI coming in at 4.2%, above expectations (4.0%) and above December
(3.9%). The yen didn’t post gains really. USD/JPY is not
a lot changed on the session around 154.45 as I update.

NZ
data showed subdued inflation expectations.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.