ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: Australian monthly CPI not enough for another RBA cut

February 26, 2025 at 03:57AM

China not happy with Canada – disrupt international trade rules, harm global supply chain

Nomura’s time-zone analysis for USD/JPY

Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee external member Dhingra speaking Wednesday

Japan Post plans $4 bn share sale in Japan Post Bank

Bitcoin forecast to drop into low 80K area

China’s Vice Commerce Minister has met with US business leaders

Tesla begins deliveries of updated Model Y in China

The US House has passed the Republican Budget plan, advancing Trump’s tax plans

PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 7.1732 (vs. estimate at 7.2526)

Copper – Chile restoring electricity supply

Australian monthly CPI (January 2025) 2.5% y/y (vs. 2.6% expected)

Australian data – Q4 2024 Construction Work Done +0.5% q/q vs. 1.0% expected

Japan’s Nikkei expected to rise as high as 42,500

ICYMI – Chile’s nationwide power outage – has impacted copper operations

Bank of Korea’s rate cut reflects growing deflation risks

Africa – Government efforts to prop up the price of cobalt

Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: US consumer confidence sinks, drags down risk assets

Oil – private survey of inventory shows a headline crude oil draw vs. build expected

Trump says it possible he’ll allow Russian oligarchs Residency in the US

Trade ideas thread – Wednesday, 26 February, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas

Trump indicates there will be a need for boots on the ground in Ukraine

Lutnick says ‘its time for copper to come home’ – no exemptions, no exceptions

The
monthly inflation data always needs to be read with care (more on why
in the posts above). The January data today showed headline inflation
coming in at 2.5% y/y, a touch below median estimates, in line with
the previous month’s reading, and bang on the mid-point of the
Reserve Bank of Australia 2 – 3% target band, Its this mid-point
that the Bank and the government have agreed to as a target. The core
reading, Trimmed Mean, however, was higher at 2.8%, up from
December’s 2.7%.

The
details in the data are not indicative of another Reserve Bank of
Australia rate cut any time soon., The Bank will be eyeing the
‘official’ quarterly data due in late April.

The
AUD moved more or less inline with other major FX, initially ticking
a little stronger
against the USD before dropping away.

JPY
tracked a similar pattern, with USD/JPY seeing lows under 148.70
briefly before recovering to circa 149.50.

In
US political news Trump scored a big win for his 2025 agenda, with
the US House passing the budget bill that includes extending Trump’s
2017 tax cuts, provisions for deportation funding, stricter border
security, energy deregulation, and increased military spending.

Chinese
equities, both mainland and in Hong Kong had a strong session.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.