October 30, 2024 at 07:56PM
US Q3 advance GDP +2.8% vs +3.0% expected
Core PCE Advanced for Q3 comes in at 2.2% vs 2.1% estimate
US October ADP employment +233K vs +114K expected
US pending home sales for September +7.4% versus 1.0% estimate
OPEC+ could delay oil production hike scheduled for December by one month or more
US German prelim HICP 2.4% vs 2.1% expected
ECB’s Schnabel: Disinflation remains on track, but inflation fight is not yet won
More from ECBs Schnabel: We expect wage growth remains high this year and rather bumpy
Markets:
Gold up $12 to record $2786
US 10-year yields up 1 bps to 4.28%
S&P 500 down 0.3%
WTI crude oil up $1.68 to $68.89
EUR leads, GBP lags
It was a lively day of news flow but it’s tough to tie it back to price action. The US dollar jumped 35 pips on the ADP numbers and held the gains after GDP, in large part due to strong consumer spending numbers in the GDP data. There were also indications that tomorrow’s PCE report could be a tad hot on inflation, or at least with a slight upward revision to the August number.
The dollar faded later as yields fell and tech stocks sagged, led by a 10% drop in AMD shares that hurt broader chipmakers. That was balanced somewhat by the 3.5% rise in Alphabet shares.
Later in the day, yields rebounded into positive territory and that helped to lift the dollar. That move might have also been helped along by Middle East headlines or a Quinnipiac poll showing Trump leading Harris in Pennsylvania, and improving from the prior poll.
Oil jumped on talk of an OPEC delay but it was a choppy move. Ultimately it helped the Canadian dollar though as it rebounded from the lows of the year.
The pound was volatile on the budget measures and crosscurrents with the US dollar. Initially the were was a sigh of relief in GBP as there were no big surprise tax measures but later the mood soured and GBP fell to 1.2969, with EUR/GBP up 60 pips to 0.8374 in a solid rally to a two-week high.
Overall, the lack of conviction on moves following data makes sense as market participants hunker down for the election. There are some moves coming on polls and Trump trades are doing well but given all the election surprises in the past couple decades, it’s not surprising that most want to wait it out, something that will guarantee big moves the day after the vote.
This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.
