As North America gets underway, the three major currency pairs are showing modest but important technical signals ahead of the US nonfarm payroll data which will be released at 8:30 AM. Also scheduled for release is US retail sales, and later the flash PMI data for the month of December. The jobs in retail sales data are the 1st since the government shutdown. There will be no October data released for the jobs report. The retail sales number is for the month of October.
Expectations are for US jobs report is for
- nonfarm payroll to rise by 50 K
- unemployment rate 4.4% unchanged from September
- average hourly earnings 0.3% MoM with 3.6% YoY
For retail sales:
- MoM Retail sales +0.1% versus 0.2% in September
- Ex Auto 0.3% versus 0.3% September
- Control Group 0.4% versus -0.1%
The weekly US ADP report will also be released at 8;15 AM ET. Last week, the weekly average moved back into positive territory at 4.75K.
IN the forex as the NA session begins, the EURUSD is edging higher at 1.1765, up 0.11% on the day, holding above the mid-range after trading between 1.1745 and 1.1769, keeping buyers modestly in control as long as support holds.
The USDJPY is softer at 154.73, down 0.31%, with sellers pressing the pair toward a swing area support near 154.33 to 154.477 and remains below the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart, suggesting downside momentum is building unless buyers can reclaim higher levels.
Meanwhile, the GBPUSD is the strongest of the three, trading at 1.3430 and up 0.43% helped by stronger PMI data, pushing toward the high from last week at 1.34376, signaling bullish momentum as buyers continue to drive the pair higher from the 1.3356 low.
In the video above, I (Greg Michalowski, author of Attacking Currency Trends) look at these three major pairs from a technical perspective and outline the bias, the risks, and the targets for each as the North American session unfolds
Fundamentally, UK PMI data for December beat expectations, with Manufacturing PMI at 51.2 (vs 50.4 expected) and the Composite PMI at 52.1 (vs 51.6 expected), pointing to firmer activity and the fastest rise in new business in 14 months. The survey suggests GDP growth of around 0.2% in December, although that optimism is tempered by the fact that official GDP data released last week came in weaker than expected, reinforcing the view that the broader economy remains fragile. Commentary from S&P Global highlighted lacklustre underlying growth, ongoing widespread job losses, and a renewed upturn in selling price inflation across both goods and services driven by rising cost pressures. The data keep the Bank of England on track to cut rates, but with growth soft and inflation risks lingering, policymakers are likely to signal caution on further easing, remaining highly data-dependent and prompting markets to reassess overly dovish expectations.
Overall in Europe:
Europe’s flash PMI data showed a mixed picture, with manufacturing seeing pockets of improvement while services activity softened across key economies.
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France Manufacturing PMI: 50.6 vs 48.1 (BETTER), higher than last month (47.8)
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France Services PMI: 50.2 vs 51.1 (WORSE), lower than last month (51.4)
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Germany Manufacturing PMI: 47.7 vs 48.6 (WORSE), lower than last month (48.2)
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Germany Services PMI: 52.6 vs 53.0 (WORSE), lower than last month (53.1)
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UK Manufacturing PMI: 51.2 vs 50.3 (BETTER), higher than last month (50.2)
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UK Services PMI: 52.1 vs 51.6 (BETTER), higher than last month (51.3)
US stocks are little changed to start the day
