New York Fed President John Williams spoke before the Cynosure Group Spring Symposium:
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US monetary policy remains well positioned for uncertain economy
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No way to know yet how Iran war impact will play out for U.S. economy
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Risks to both sides of Fed’s mandates have increased
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Economy is presenting ‘unusual set of circumstances’
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Market energy outlook benign, but there are ‘plausible’ bad scenarios
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Inflation likely to be 3% this year, back to 2% target in 2027
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‘Notable’ supply chain disruptions emerging
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Tariffs and energy are big inflation drivers, underlying inflation mostly stable
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It’s good that inflation expectations remain contained
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Expects U.S. economic growth between 2% and 2.25% this year
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Economy has been very resilient
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Expects jobless rate to stay around 4.25% to 4.50%
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Policy well positioned for economic risks, uncertainty
Williams’ prior remarks came at the Federal Home Loan Bank of New York symposium on April 16, with sideline comments to reporters the same day.
Since then, his GDP forecast tightened to 2%–2.25% (from 2%–2.5%).
“Likely to be 3% this year” — that’s the upper end of his prior 2.75%–3% range, suggesting energy/supply pressures are biting more than he expected three weeks ago. His 2027 return to target unchanged.
“Risks to both sides of the mandate have increased” — in April he framed risks as “in balance.” Today’s wording acknowledges both sides got worse, which is highlighted in his forecasts.
Overall he’s marginally more dovish on growth, marginally more hawkish on near-term inflation, more openly worried about tails
