Waller has taken a really bearish turn on the economy. The other Fed candidates are arguing for rate cuts based on productivity but he’s arguing for them based on a poor economy.
- 2026 could turn out to be a better year for economy, hopes that helps job market
- Inflation is above target but should come down over next few months
- Inflation expectations are anchored
- Fed can go at a moderate pace, doesn’t need dramatic action
- Job market says Fed should continue to cut rates
- Fed is 50-100 bps above neutral
- Hart to say tariffs caused job market weakness
Waller met with Trump this week for the Fed job
Fed’s Waller: Jobs market is very soft, current payrolls growth not good
