December 20, 2024 at 12:39PM
Progress on inflation has slowed relative to what we wanted
We don’t know what the incoming administration will do, so for me it’s about the data
Risks to the outlook are equally balanced
I saw this cut as a close call
The recalibration phase is now over
Now you wait watchfully before making further cuts
My projection is it will take many fewer rate cuts next year than we had thought
I was comfortable with the median outlook
We’re really working towards a soft landing
I see policy in a position supporting both goals, lowering inflation but not breaking the labor market
This is hawkish stuff. This is what markets read between the lines with Powell and now one of his mouthpieces is spelling it out. She normally tilts dovish but isn’t sounding that way at all today.
The market is already there with a 90% chance of no move in January and near 50/50 for March. We’ll get three non-farm payrolls and CPI reports before then so there is plenty to come.
This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.