- Inflation is running about 3% above the 2% target
- tariffs are impacting, but expect those pressures to fade after 6 to 9 months. But it could be more persistent.
- The Fed has a dual mandate.
- I am going both things that inflation is 1% above target, and that the risks to the employment are to the downside.
- I see the labor market stable around full employment.
- There are some signs of weakening. Payroll growth was low with very large revisions.
- The demand for labor has declined but so has the supply.
- With lower immigration flows, it’s reasonable to expect that the nonfarm payroll could be sub 50 K
- Despite the slower job growth, the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2%.
- I take a meeting by meeting approach
Fed Pres. Musalem; Inflation is running about 3% above the 2% target.Tariffs are impacting
