Business confidence in Belgium dropped significantly in February, erasing the modest gains seen in January and falling back to levels last seen in May 2025, according to the National Bank of Belgium’s latest survey released today.
The overall synthetic curve fell to -13.7 from -8.8 in January, a 4.9-point decline that underscores the fragile nature of the brief uptick recorded last month. The underlying smoothed curve, which strips out short-term noise to capture the broader economic trend, continued its downward trajectory.
The deterioration was broad-based, with all sectors except construction posting weaker readings. The trade sector was hit hardest, with its indicator plunging 12.3 points to -17.9. Demand expectations and forecasts of orders to suppliers — which had shown notable improvement in January — reversed sharply and then some. That said, traders still expect a marginal increase in headcount over the next three months, which offers a small silver lining.
Manufacturing wasn’t far behind, dropping 6.1 points to -17.1. Business leaders in the sector reported deterioration across the board: order books, demand expectations, employment outlook, and stock level assessments all worsened materially compared to January.
Business-related services fell for a third straight month, slipping to -4.3 from -2.7. Firms remain downbeat on current and future activity levels, though they do see market demand picking up — a disconnect worth watching.
Construction was the lone holdout, with its reading barely budging at -7.1 versus -6.8 previously. Equipment use and total orders improved on a trend basis, but seasonal adjustments painted a less favourable picture, and firms expect demand to weaken over the next quarter.
Key data points from the February survey:
- Overall synthetic curve: -13.7 (prev. -8.8)
- Manufacturing: -17.1 (prev. -11.0)
- Trade: -17.9 (prev. -5.6)
- Business-related services: -4.3 (prev. -2.7)
- Building industry: -7.1 (prev
February Belgian business sentiment -13.7 vs -8.8 prior
