In EURUSD last week, sellers leaned against the 50% retracement of the decline from the late-January high to the early-February low at 1.19230. The high on Tuesday reached 1.1928, with additional swing highs at 1.1926–1.1925, effectively stalling upside momentum.
Buyers had their opportunity — and they failed.
That rejection set the tone for Wednesday’s slide, which pushed the pair back below both the 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages. Although price attempted a rebound, sellers re-emerged near the 38.2% retracement at 1.18857, reinforcing downside pressure.
By Friday, EURUSD was caught between the 100-hour MA above and the 200-hour MA below. Late yesterday, price broke beneath the 200-hour MA (1.1858) and has remained below that level today. The drift lower has been steady rather than aggressive, but the pair is trading near session lows, down about 0.23% at 1.18237.
What next?
Technically, sellers remain in control below the 100-hour MA (1.18623) and the 200-hour MA (1.1858). A move back above those levels would be needed to give buyers some traction and shift short-term bias higher.
Absent that, the path of least resistance remains lower, with the next downside target between:
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1.17648 (February low)
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1.1778 (multi-touch swing area dating back to early January)
That zone represents a key technical battleground. A break below it would open the door for a deeper extension lower.
Technical Bias: LowerRisk: 100 and 200 hour MAs between 1.1658 to 1.1862Target: 1.17648 to 1.1778 swing area
