The EURUSD is pressing higher in the aftermath of a volatile, whipsaw reaction to the US CPI report. The initial response to the data was to the upside, but that move quickly ran into resistance as sellers leaned against a downward-sloping trendline in the short-term chart and the 61.8% retracement of the recent swing move. The rejection from that zone saw a sharp pullback, taking the pair down toward the 50% midpoint of the range at 1.16098. Momentum on the downside slowed, and the post-CPI low ultimately found support at 1.1617.
From there, buyers re-entered, gradually regaining control. As price pushed higher, the 100-hour moving average—currently at 1.16435—became the key pivot point. The break above that level was decisive, shifting the intraday bias back in favor of the bulls. Importantly, the market then used that 100-hour MA as a technical springboard, holding above it on subsequent dips and accelerating to new session highs.
The rally has since tested the top end of recent trading ranges, with today’s high at 1.1696 coming within a fraction of last week’s peak at 1.1698. That 1.1700 handle is now a clear line in the sand for traders. A sustained break above this level would signal a breakout and open the door for an extension toward the next major upside target—the July 24 high at 1.1787.
For now, short-term momentum favors the upside, but the market is not without nearby resistance. Sellers may still attempt to defend the 1.1700 barrier on the first test, especially given the over-100-pip rebound from the session low. On the downside, support levels to watch include the
- Broken 61.8% retracement at 1.16615.
- 100-hour MA at 1.16435,
Staying above the 100 hour moving averages essential if the buyers are to maintain control. A failure and the buyers will likely be disappointed.
In sum, the technical picture has improved for the EURUSD after shaking off an initial pullback. The battle now centers on whether the bulls can push through 1.1700 and set their sights on 1.1787, or whether sellers can once again cap the rally at familiar resistance.
Meanwhile, US stocks are pushing to new record levels with the S&P now up 56 points for 0.88%. The NASDAQ index is up 220 points or 1.03%.
In the US debt market, the yield curve is steepening with the two-year down -2.5 basis points at 3.728%. While the 10 year is up 2.6 basis points at 4.298%
