Fundamental
Overview
The USD came under some
pressure at the start of last week following the US CPI report as the data came
mostly in line with expectations. In the following days though, we got some hottish
data with the US PPI beating expectations by a big margin, the US Jobless
Claims improving further and the inflation expectations in the UMich survey
surprising to the upside.
Overall, we ended the week
basically flat on the US dollar as the aggressive dovish expectations on the
Fed got trimmed a bit. Nevertheless, given the overreaction from the Fed
members to the last soft NFP, a September cut looks unavoidable now and only a
hot NFP report in September might get us to a 50% probability (although it
would certainly diminish expectations for rate cuts after the September one).
The focus has now switched
to Fed Chair Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday. Traders
will be eager to see if he changes his stance as well. Most likely though, he
won’t pre-commit to anything and just reiterate that they will decide based on
the totality of the data.
On the EUR side, we haven’t
got anything new in terms of fundamentals after the US-EU trade deal that set
tariffs at 15%. Many ECB members are now taking a much more neutral approach to
rate cuts. They will need significant negative data to force them to cut
further. The market is pricing just 11 bps of easing by year-end, so another
rate cut has less than 50% chance of happening. From a risk management perspective, the buyers will have a better
risk to reward setup around the support, while the sellers would be better off piling
in around the trendline.
EURUSD Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe
On the 1 hour chart, there’s not much we can add here although on an
intraday basis, we might see a push into the trendline if the price breaks
above the recent highs at 1.1715. We begin with Fed’s Bowman tomorrow. On Wednesday,
we have the Fed’s Waller and the FOMC meeting minutes. On Thursday, we get the Eurozone
and US Flash PMIs as well as the US Jobless Claims figures
