The probability for a
December cut is now at 76%, which generally makes it a done deal.
We won’t get much data
before the FOMC meeting, so the focus will likely be mainly on jobless claims
and ADP data. Weak data should keep weighing on the greenback, while strong
data could provide some short-term support. At the end of the day though, it’s all
about the FOMC decision and the following NFP and CPI reports.
On the EUR side, nothing
has changed fundamentally. The ECB policymakers continue to repeat that the
current policy is appropriate and that they won’t respond to small or shot-term
deviations from their 2% target. The recent Eurozone data has been supporting
the central bank neutral stance.
EURUSD Technical
Analysis – Daily Timeframe
On the daily chart, we can
see that EURUSD has been trading in a wide range between the 1.17 and 1.15 levels.
There’s not much we can glean from this timeframe, so we need to zoom in to see
some more details.
EURUSD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe
On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we have a strong resistance zone around the 1.1590 level. This is
where the sellers are stepping in with a defined risk above the resistance to
position for a drop back into the 1.1550 level. The buyers, on the other hand,
will want to see the price breaking higher to increase the bullish bets into
the 1.1670 level next.
EURUSD Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe
On the 1 hour chart, there’s not much else we can add here but if we get a
pullback into the 1.1550 level, we can expect the buyers to step in there with
a defined risk below the 1.1540 level to position for a rally back into the resistance.
The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break below the 1.1540 level to
increase the bearish bets into new lows. Tomorrow, we have the
US Thanksgiving holiday which is likely to make the final part of the week more
rangebound
