EURUSD Surges as US Yields Slide Post-Fed: Technical Outlook

Key Takeaways

• U.S. yields continue to fall after the Fed’s rate cut, reinforcing a dovish market tone and weighing heavily on the USD.

• EURUSD extends higher, breaking multiple technical resistance levels, including the Oct. 17 swing high and the 61.8% retracement.

• USD broadly weaker, down against every major currency except AUD; EUR is one of the strongest movers at +0.52% vs USD.

• Upside targets emerge at the 1.1779–1.1788 swing zone, with risk defined by the 1.17274 breakout level and rising short-term MAs.

• 5-minute trend structure remains bullish, with buyers defending the rising 100- and 200-bar MAs.

Fed Cut Sparks Renewed USD Selling as Yields Slide

The Federal Reserve’s 25-bp cut and the market’s dovish interpretation continue to ripple through U.S. fixed-income markets today. Yields across the Treasury curve are extending lower, adding pressure to the USD:

• 2-year: 3.515% (–4.9 bps)

• 5-year: 3.697% (–5.7 bps)

• 10-year: 4.119% (–4.4 bps)

• 30-year: 4.769% (–2.6 bps)

With yields falling in unison, the USD is weakening sharply, trading lower against nearly all major currencies. The dollar is higher only against the AUD (+0.10%), while its 0.52% decline vs the EUR makes EURUSD one of the strongest movers of the day.

EURUSD Breakout: Technical Structure Turns Decisively Bullish

Today’s EURUSD price action began with a pullback following yesterday’s sharp Fed-driven breakout. The decline tested last week’s high near 1.1681, where buyers re-entered. That rebound propelled the pair above the 50% midpoint of the September–October range at 1.16929, opening the door for a continuation move.

Momentum extended further as EURUSD:

• Broke the Oct. 17 swing high at 1.17274

• Cleared the 61.8% retracement at 1.17461

• Printed a session high at 1.1759, before rotating slightly to 1.1753

These breaks confirm strengthening bullish control and shift the focus toward the next major resistance band.

Upside Targets and Key Resistance Zones

With bullish momentum firm, the next topside levels for traders to watch include:

• 1.1779–1.1788: A key multi-touch swing area

• Above 1.1788: Opens the door to a more accelerated upside extension

As long as the pair holds above the 61.8% level (1.17461) and, more importantly, above the Oct. 17 swing high at 1.17274, buyers remain firmly in control.

Short-Term Trend Support: 5-Minute Chart Levels to Watch

The short-term trend remains bullish, supported by rising moving averages:

• 100-bar MA: 1.1719 (approaching the 1.17274 breakout level)

• 200-bar MA: 1.17065

During the Asian-Pacific session, EURUSD dipped toward the rising 200-bar MA, where buyers defended support, launching the next leg higher into the European and North American sessions.

For sellers to gain meaningful traction, price would need to:

1. Break below the 100-bar MA

2. Break below the 200-bar MA

3. Stay below both to shift intraday momentum

A move under those moving averages would be the first sign that buyers are losing short-term control.

Conclusion and Video Commentary

In the video above, I (Greg Michalowski, author of Attacking Currency Trends) walk through the EURUSD technical landscape, identify the precise risk parameters traders should monitor, and outline the next upside and downside targets that matter most.

Be aware