The EURUSD is pushing to a new session high following weaker-than-expected data from the University of Michigan. Sentiment dropped to a fresh record low at 47.6 (vs 52.0 expected), while 1-year inflation expectations jumped sharply to 4.8% from 3.8%. Ongoing tensions tied to the Iran conflict are clearly weighing on consumer confidence and shaping the inflation outlook.
From a technical perspective, the move higher is now testing an important zone. On the 4-hour chart, price is extending into a swing area between 1.1726 and 1.1741. Adding to that importance, the 50% midpoint of the 2026 trading range comes in at 1.17443, creating a key confluence area.
If buyers can push and hold above that zone, the next upside targets come into focus between 1.1765 and 1.1778—another swing area that could act as the next ceiling.
On the downside, today’s low briefly dipped below the 100-day moving average at 1.1688, but importantly held above the 200-day moving average at 1.1671. Those moving averages remain key barometers for bias. Holding above and rotating higher keeps buyers more in control and tilts the bias to the upside.
Key levels to watch:
- Upside targets: 1.1726–1.1741 → 1.17443 (50% midpoint) → 1.1765–1.1778
- Support/risk: 100-day MA at 1.1688, then 200-day MA at 1.1671
Bottom line:
Momentum has shifted back to the upside on weaker sentiment data
