February 21, 2025 at 02:36PM
The EURUSD fell to the week’s lows on Wednesday, testing the 200-hour moving average (MA) and the 38.2% retracement of the February trading range. Support held, leading to a bounce higher. On Thursday, the price extended its recovery, moving back above the 100-hour MA, which had previously acted as resistance on Wednesday before the drop. This break above the 100-hour MA provided buyers with momentum to push further to the upside.
However, the rally stalled ahead of last week’s high at 1.05137, with the peak reaching 1.0505 before pulling back. In today’s European session, the price found support buyers against the 100-hour MA, reinforcing its importance. The dynamic has now shifted—on Wednesday, the 100-hour MA acted as resistance, but on Thursday, it was broken with momentum. Now, with today’s price action, the 100-hour MA is holding as support, strengthening its significance moving forward.
With support at the 100-hour MA holding, the bias leans to the upside. A retest of today’s high and last week’s high remains a possibility. However, if the 100-hour MA fails, selling pressure is likely to return, targeting the 200-hour MA at 1.0437 (and rising) as the next key downside level.
Technical Summary:
Support held at the 200-hour MA and 38.2% retracement on Wednesday, leading to a bounce.
Price broke above the 100-hour MA on Thursday, shifting bias higher.
Resistance found at 1.0505, just below last week’s high of 1.05137.
100-hour MA flipped to support in today’s European session, increasing its significance.
Upside bias remains intact while above the 100-hour MA; a move toward 1.05137 is possible.
Break below the 100-hour MA could trigger further selling, with the 200-hour MA at 1.0437 as the next downside target.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
