July 15, 2024 at 04:23AM
The European Central Bank statement is due on Thursday 18 July at 1215 GMT / 0815 US Eastern time
no change to interest rates is widely expected
Lagarde’s press conference follows a half hour later.
From the Deutsche Bank preview, in brief:
we expect the ECB to leave policy unchanged
ECB is not on a pre-determined path … the ECB does not want to commit to when and how much it will cut … it wants to be led by the data
expect the ECB to avoid explicit guidance
as inflation converges towards target, restrictive monetary policy stance will unwind further
baseline remains two more 25bp cuts, in September and December this year … a cut in September is not a done deal … but remains the most likely outcome
recent data suggest the ECB staff need to revise the near-term inflation outlook higher
continue to see the terminal rate in a landing zone of 2.00-2.50% in late-25/early-26
On the press conference:
we expect President Lagarde to be guarded in her responses to direct questions on France, saying that the ECB is attentive to what is happening in markets at all points in time and that euro area member states have agreed a fiscal framework with which they are expected to comply
ECB dates 2024
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.
