ECB’s Vujčić: I don’t think December decision will be that difficult

December 04, 2024 at 12:23PM

We are on the same page and I don’t believe it will be much different in the coming meetings

Expects ECB to stick with cutting rates at a gradual pace rather than a bigger move this month

Inflation pick up in latest report mostly due to base effects i.e. energy prices phasing out

New forecasts next week should reflect a substantial fall in inflation in the latter half of 2025

The meeting-by-meeting approach remains the appropriate option for now

Have to adjust monetary policy not only in response to US tariffs but also on EU response

But most likely a trade war will lead to higher inflationary pressures

Full transcript

He’s playing down any potential for a major debate on the December decision and endorsing a clear 25 bps move. That seems to be the angle that ECB policymakers have been taking as of late, so this just reaffirms that. The market pricing shows the odds of a 25 bps move at ~93% today.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.