ECB policymakers are starting to get uneasy as EUR/USD crosses 1.20

January 28, 2026
-FXnews

He added that they have no target for the exchange rate but the euro is one element that will guide their policy.

It looks like they are trying to jawbone a bit here. Policymakers don’t like fast, one-sided moves and we just went from 1.1576 to 1.2082 in less than two weeks. Of course, that was all about the dollar as USD/JPY intervention risks and Trump’s actions weighed on the greenback.

I personally think this move is overdone absent new catalysts because it was more about the intervention risk than something fundamental. If we get strong US data next month, the market should pare back the 48 bps of easing priced in by year-end and provide support for the dollar. On the other hand, if we get soft data, the greenback will likely remain under pressure as dovish bets would keep weighing on it

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