ECB policymaker Nagel says data will decide ECB’s decision in June

May 12, 2026
-FXnews

Our mandate requires us to act if inflation expectations de-anchor
Data will decide the ECB’s decision in June
Baseline included two rate hikes

The ECB has already signalled that a rate hike in June is coming unless the war ends and oil prices fall significantly before then, so I’m not sure why he places weight on the data.

The economic data hasn’t been screaming for the aggressive rate hikes the market has been pricing in. Headline inflation did rise due to energy prices, but we also got a slowdown in economic activity. Right now, there are three hikes expected by year-end.

For June, the market is pricing in an 88% probability of a rate hike, so that’s basically a done deal

ECB policymaker Nagel says data will decide ECB’s decision in June

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