ECB not expected to change policy stance to start the year – poll

January 23, 2026
-FXnews

67 of 79 (~85%) of economists said rates would remain unchanged through 2026
All 83 economists expect no change to the deposit rate for the 5 February policy decision

The poll numbers sum up very well the market expectations currently towards the ECB. And the ~85% share of opinion of no change in rates for this year is even higher than the poll last month (~75%) and in November (~66%). So, that reflects an increasing and stronger view that the central bank is not going to be able to do much on the policy front in 2026.

As things stand, the ECB looks like they have gotten inflation down to as close as 2% as they can get it to. Stubborn price pressures in the likes of Germany and Spain is making it tough for the central bank to take any further action to ease interest rates. And potential stagflation risks in the former is still something that policymakers need to be mindful of.

Given the circumstances, they also have to be mindful of the more persistent impact of things like US tariffs. The drive up in inflation may not be over and could circle back in due time

ECB not expected to change policy stance to start the year – poll

For News Subscribe Us!

If you wish to receive the weekly market report, please subscribe. For a daily report please go to contact form to speak to the sales team.

Payment Guides

UK Sterling (GBP)

Euro (EUR)

US Dollar (USD)

Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Swiss Franc (CHF)

Australian Dollar (AUD)

Danish Krone (DKK)

Formats and Codes

Useful Links

HUBFX Asia Business Office at
100 Peck Seah St, 079333, Singapore

HUBFX’s payment and foreign currency exchange services are provided by Global Currency Exchange Network Ltd T/A GC Partners. Global Currency Exchange Network Ltd is authorised by the FCA under the Payment Services Regulations, 2017 (FRN: 504346). Registered as a Money Services Business, regulated by HM Revenue & Customs (“HMRC”) under the Money Laundering Regulations 2017. (Registration number is 12137189). Registered in England and Wales. Company number 04675786. Registered Office 3rd Floor 100 New Bond Street, London, England, W1S 1SP

For clients based in the European Economic Area, payment services for HUBFX are provided by CurrencyCloud B.V.. Registered in the Netherlands No. 72186178. Registered Office: Nieuwezijds Voorburgwal 296 – 298, Mindspace Nieuwezijds Office 001 Amsterdam. CurrencyCloud B.V. is authorised by the DNB under the Wet op het financieel toezicht to carry out the business of an electronic-money institution (Relation Number: R142701). For clients based in the United States, payment services for HUBFX are provided by The Currency Cloud Inc. which operates in partnership with Community Federal Savings Bank (CFSB) to facilitate payments in all 50 states in the US. CFSB is registered with the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC Certificate# 57129). The Currency Cloud Inc is registered with FinCEN and authorised in 39 states to transmit money (MSB Registration Number: 31000206794359). Registered Office: 104 5th Avenue, 20th Floor, New York , NY 10011. For clients based in the United Kingdom and rest of the world, payment services for HUBFX are provided by The Currency Cloud Limited. Registered in England and Wales No. 06323311. Registered Office: Stewardship Building 1st Floor, 12 Steward Street London E1 6FQ. The Currency Cloud Limited is authorised by the Financial Conduct Authority under the Electronic Money Regulations 2011 for the issuing of electronic money (FRN: 900199). Please refer to the Terms of Use here.

Payment services for HUBFX UK and US are provided by The Currency Cloud Limited. Registered in England No. 06323311. Registered Office: Stewardship Building 1st Floor, 12 Steward Street London E1 6FQ. The Currency Cloud Limited is authorised by the Financial Conduct Authority under the Electronic Money Regulations 2011 for the issuing of electronic money (FRN: 900199) and The Currency Cloud Inc. which operates in partnership with Community Federal Savings Bank (CFSB) to facilitate payments in all 50 states in the US. CFSB is registered with the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC Certificate# 57129). The Currency Cloud Inc is registered with FinCEN and authorized in 39 states to transmit money (MSB Registration Number: 31000160311064). Registered Office: 104 5th Avenue, 20th Floor, New York , NY 10011

Payment services for HUBFX are provided by The Currency Cloud Limited. Registered in England No. 06323311. Registered Office: Stewardship Building 1st Floor, 12 Steward Street London E1 6FQ. The Currency Cloud Limited is authorised by the Financial Conduct Authority under the Electronic Money Regulations 2011 for the issuing of electronic money (FRN: 900199) and The Currency Cloud Inc. which operates in partnership with Community Federal Savings Bank (CFSB) to facilitate payments in all 50 states in the US. CFSB is registered with the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC Certificate# 57129). The Currency Cloud Inc is registered with FinCEN and authorized in 39 states to transmit money (MSB Registration Number: 31000160311064). Registered Office: 104 5th Avenue, 20th Floor, New York , NY 10011 and CurrencyCloud B.V.. Registered in the Netherlands No. 72186178. Registered Office: Nieuwezijds Voorburgwal 296 – 298, Mindspace Nieuwezijds Office 001 Amsterdam. CurrencyCloud B.V. is authorised by the DNB under the Wet op het financieel toezicht to carry out the business of a electronic-money institution (Relation Number: R142701)

Rates are indicative only. Please log in for getting your rates.