August 21, 2024 at 02:13PM
It’s tough to find consistent signals on the economy at the moment. There are certainly signs of weakening in things like housing and rate-sensitive areas like autos but the retail good sector looks strong, as highlighted by Walmart last week.
This week’s market is just as confusing. Equities are ripping and the market is acting as if a soft landing with immaculate disinflation is unfolding but at the same time, oil is on a four-day losing streak and copper has been struggling.
Drilling down into oil, the picture is also murky, as highlighted by a couple of charts. Jet fuel demand right now is higher than it’s been at any point in the summer over the past five years. Flying is above pre-pandemic levels — surely a good sign of consumer health.
On the flipside, diesel demand is now lower than it’s been at this time of year at any point in the past five years, and turning lower. That suggests the industrial and transport side of the economy is struggling.
I will be keeping a close watch on diesel but I think it’s clear what’s going to happen to jet fuel. Airlines throughout North America have warned of lower bookings and that’s had airline stocks struggling, in some cases back to 2020 levels.
This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.
