The price of crude oil is settling at $80.75. That is down $-4.13 or -4.87%. The fall to the downside took the price away from a key cluster of resistance defined by:
- 100 hour moving average at $86.71
- 100 day moving average at $86.63
- Swing area between $85.45 and $86.35
That area between $85.45 and $86.71 served as a key support zone for much of the period following the start of the U.S.-Iran conflict (red numbered circles). Now that the price has broken below that floor, the zone becomes an important resistance area. If the bearish trend is to remain intact, sellers would not want to see crude oil climb back above that resistance cluster anytime soon.
Fundamentally, the backdrop has shifted toward a more bearish outlook. Expectations for increased global supply, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and the potential easing of sanctions on Iran should all work to add barrels back into the market and weigh on prices. As a result, the path of least resistance currently appears to be to the downside.
The primary risk to that view is a renewed escalation in the conflict. Any breakdown in the agreement, renewed military action, or another closure of the Strait of Hormuz could quickly reintroduce a geopolitical risk premium and send prices sharply higher. It is worth remembering that crude oil was trading at just $67.04 on February 27, the day before the war began, underscoring how much of the previous rally was driven by supply disruption fears.
On the downside, getting below $77.57 would have traders looking toward the 200 day moving average at $73.42
