Fitch says China remains resilient to global energy shocks but weak consumer demand is limiting growth, with fiscal deficits staying elevated and risks rising if energy disruptions hit trade and manufacturing.
Summary:
- China seen resilient to global energy shock
- Domestic consumption remains weak, confidence subdued
- No near-term acceleration in household demand
- Fiscal deficit to remain elevated at ~7.3% of GDP
- Energy shock risks spillover into trade and manufacturing
- Growth outlook remains uneven
China’s economy is showing resilience to the global energy shock, but weak domestic demand remains a key constraint on the growth outlook, according to analysis from Fitch Ratings.
The agency notes that while China has been relatively insulated from the worst of the energy disruption — helped by diversified supply sources and policy support — the external shock still poses risks, particularly if elevated energy prices persist. Prolonged disruption could spill over into China’s trade and manufacturing sectors, which remain sensitive to global demand conditions and input cost pressures.
Despite this resilience, Fitch highlights that domestic consumption continues to lag. Consumer confidence remains subdued, limiting the prospect of a meaningful acceleration in household spending in the near term. This suggests that China’s recovery remains uneven, with external sectors and policy support doing more of the heavy lifting than domestic demand.
On the fiscal side, Fitch expects China’s budget deficit to narrow slightly in 2026 but remain elevated at around 7.3% of GDP. This reflects ongoing government support measures aimed at stabilising growth, even as authorities attempt to gradually normalise fiscal settings.
The combination of resilient external positioning and soft domestic demand underscores the challenges facing policymakers. While China is better placed than many economies to manage energy shocks, the lack of a strong consumption rebound continues to weigh on the broader recovery.
Looking ahead, the trajectory of global energy markets will be a key variable. A prolonged period of elevated prices could erode China’s relative resilience, particularly through its impact on manufacturing competitiveness and export performance
