Australia’s economy is increasingly exhibiting conditions consistent with further monetary tightening, leading Commonwealth Bank economists to forecast a 25 basis point Reserve Bank of Australia rate hike in February, despite market scepticism around near-term action. Growth has rebounded faster than expected, with GDP accelerating through the second half of 2025 and activity now assessed as running around potential rather than below it. The pickup has been broad-based, led by household consumption as real disposable incomes recover and savings buffers are drawn down.
Labour market conditions remain a key driver of the tightening call. Employment growth has stayed resilient, spare capacity indicators point to limited slack, and unemployment is forecast to remain low even as population growth eases. With wages growth still elevated relative to productivity, CBA argues that domestic cost pressures remain inconsistent with inflation returning smoothly to target without further policy restraint.
Inflation dynamics are another critical factor. While headline inflation has moderated, underlying measures are proving sticky, with services inflation and trimmed-mean CPI easing only gradually. Inflation expectations have also edged higher across consumer and market-based measures, raising concerns that inflation persistence could become more entrenched if policy settings are not tightened further.
CBA also points to evidence that financial conditions have loosened unintentionally. Equity markets have rallied, the Australian dollar has depreciated at times, and household spending has surprised to the upside, all of which risk undermining the disinflation process. Against this backdrop, holding rates steady for too long could allow demand to re-accelerate faster than supply, especially given ongoing capacity constraints.
While acknowledging that timing is finely balanced, CBA believes the RBA will judge that acting earlier — rather than waiting for clearer inflation deterioration — is the lower-risk strategy
