China’s manufacturing sector showed signs of stabilisation in September 2025 as the official Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) rose to 49.8, beating forecasts of 49.6 and climbing from August’s 49.4. While the reading is still below the crucial 50 mark that distinguishes contraction from growth, it marks the slowest rate...
The Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for 3Q rose to 3.4% vs 3.1% on September 11. In theiir own words: The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2025 is 3.4 percent on September 16, up from 3.1 percent on September...
UBS has raised its gold price forecast for the end of 2025 to $3,800 per ounce, up from a previous projection of $3,500, and sees gold reaching $3,900 by mid-2026—an increase of $200 from its earlier target. UBS cites prospects for Federal Reserve rate cuts, continued central bank buying, and...
China’s economic growth is projected to come in just under 5% in the third quarter of 2025, sparking renewed calls for stimulus measures as growth momentum shows signs of weakening heading into year-end. Societe Generale’s Greater China economist Michelle Lam highlighted these risks, noting that the softer GDP figures will...
In a dramatic turn of events, the European Union and the United States have reached a preliminary tariff agreement after months of tense negotiations and threats of an escalating trade war. This blog unpacks the negotiation timeline, key deal terms, internal EU reactions, and the broader geopolitical implications of this...
The NZDUSD started the week under pressure, with the move lower beginning near the 200-hour moving average, which sat at 0.6061 at the time. Monday’s high reached 0.6058, but sellers leaned against that level, triggering a move to the downside. The decline extended into Tuesday and Wednesday, with the pair...
Bank of America highlights that tightening election polls in Japan and incoming US tariffs raise fiscal and political risks, making the yen vulnerable. They stay long USD/JPY targeting 152 and prefer EUR/JPY and AUD/JPY as additional ways to position for yen weakness. Key Points: Japanese Election Risk: Early polls suggest...
The USDJPY has moved above the 38.2% retracement of the 2025 trading range, measured from the January 10 high to the April 22 low. That retracement level comes in at 147.135, and it’s aligned with a key swing area between 147.014 and 147.338. The pair has extended to a high...
USD/JPY is near the best levels of the day, up 120 pips to 147.47. The pair has been underpinned by rising Treasury yields this month and that continues to be the case today. Meanwhile, US economic data has been good, including the latest non-farm payrolls report. The Fed doesn’t look...
The EURUSD continues to find solid support in the 1.1663 to 1.1691 zone, a key technical floor that dates back to April–November 2021. The pair has repeatedly tested this area this week, with buyers stepping in on each dip, reinforcing its significance. A break below this support zone would be...
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