The Canadian CPI report is first up on the North American calendar today. It comes at a critical time for the Bank of Canada, as the market is pricing in a 37% chance of a cut on July 30. There will still be one more inflation report before the decision but today’s data could swing the odds.
As for the US calendar, it’s heavy with Fed speakers in including Powell (10 am ET), Williams (1230 pm ET), Kashkari (1:45 pm ET), Collins (2:05 pm ET), Barr (4 pm ET) and Schmid (8:15 pm ET). I wouldn’t except any dovish surprises from the first four names on that list but Schmid will be interesting.
The Fed chair will be under pressure to drop a dovish hint but I struggle to see how he would pivot so quickly after the FOMC. He’s also a skilled communicator and unlikely to slip up
