Brazil’s price advantage and record harvest position it to deepen its dominance of China’s soybean imports in early 2026, despite renewed U.S. supply.
Summary:
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China set to lift Brazilian soybean imports in early 2026
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Record South American output keeps Brazilian prices dominant
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U.S. purchases concentrated among state-owned buyers only
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Tariffs and pricing sideline private Chinese crushers from U.S. cargoes
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Brazil expected to widen market share through mid-year
China is expected to ramp up imports of Brazilian soybeans in the first half of 2026, as a record South American harvest and sharply lower prices reinforce Brazil’s dominance in the world’s largest oilseed market, even as U.S. supplies return later in the year.
Private Chinese crushers have been locking in Brazilian cargoes for shipment from February onward as harvesting accelerates, swelling supply and depressing prices. Traders say the pricing advantage is likely to persist through mid-year, weighing on demand for U.S. soybeans when the North American export season begins in September.
Recent U.S. soybean purchases, roughly 12 million tonnes since late October, were made exclusively by state-owned buyers, including Sinograin and COFCO, following a thaw in bilateral ties. Private traders have largely stayed on the sidelines, citing higher U.S. prices and China’s 13% tariff on U.S. soybeans, compared with a 3% duty on Brazilian supplies.
According to analysts, current U.S. buying is sufficient to maintain a constructive political backdrop ahead of the April leaders’ meeting, but is unlikely to expand materially without further tariff relief or political assurances. Even if Beijing instructs state firms to lift purchases to meet trade commitments, private crushers are expected to favour Brazil on cost grounds.
Brazilian soybeans remain meaningfully cheaper on both FOB and cost-and-freight bases, with traders expecting the price gap to widen as harvest pressure builds. Analysts say China is likely to maximise Brazilian imports through March–June, supported by favourable crush margins and strong soymeal demand tied to China’s still-large pig herd.
With Brazil forecast to produce a record 182.2 million tonnes in 2025/26 and exports to China expected to rise, South America’s grip on China’s soybean market looks set to strengthen, leaving U.S. suppliers reliant on political directives rather than commercial demand.
These two set to meet again in April. For now
