A Bloomberg survey shows most economists expect the Bank of Japan to keep its benchmark interest rate at 0.5% during its June 17 meeting and begin slowing the pace of government bond purchase reductions. While no rate move is anticipated, the main focus will be the BOJ’s plan for quantitative tightening, as bond market volatility and global economic uncertainty raise concerns.
The BOJ has been cutting bond purchases by ¥400 billion per quarter since last August, but many analysts now expect the pace to slow starting next April—potentially to ¥200–¥300 billion reductions per quarter. Economists warn that too cautious a move could undermine confidence in the bond market’s ability to absorb supply.
The survey also revealed shifting expectations for the BOJ’s next rate hike: January 2026 is now seen as the most likely timing, overtaking earlier bets on July or October. Goldman Sachs noted that the decision could hinge on global conditions, including U.S. tariff policy and automotive trade. Meanwhile, opinions remain divided on whether a U.S.-Japan trade agreement will be reached by the upcoming G7 summit
