The expectation is that they will maintain the bank rate at 4.00% this week, though the voting decision is a bit more varied. We are seeing analysts call it from anything between 5-4 to 7-2 in favour of keeping the bank rate on hold but there are a couple of outlier calls as well.
Money markets are discounting the possibility of a 25 bps rate cut but the decision could end up being much closer than what is priced in. Here are some analysts that are calling for a rate cut to be delivered later today:
Barclays- 5-4 vote split for a 25 bps cut- “Much of the existing forward guidance is likely to remain, although the
committee may deliver a hawkish cut by alluding to Bank Rate now approaching neutral.”- Assuming a November rate cut, look for continued quarterly cuts to a terminal rate of 3.50%
in April next year
Danske- 5-4 vote split for a 25 bps cut- Chances of a rate cut are “slightly above 50%”- Sees BOE cutting again in February next year to mark terminal rate of 3.50%- “The Autumn Statement is a big joker in all of this
