June 19, 2024 at 06:31PM
Members recognized chance of inflation stalling but there was a consensus that indicators showed enough progress to warrant a cut
Members agreed that future easing would likely be gradual, timing would depend on data
Agreed to emphasize in communications that decisions would be taken one meeting at a time
Some members were more focused on downside risks to finlatio ndue to weak economy
Others put more weight on upside risks related to persistent wage growth and potential for housing market rebound
Discussed many potential drivers that could affect exchange rate
Discussed large number of households renewing mortgages at higher rates in 2025
The ‘gradual’ comment is an interesting one as it goes against market pricing of 64% for another cut in July. That said, the probabilities will swing with upcoming data, including retail sales on Friday and next week’s CPI and GDP reports.
USD/CAD was unmoved on this release and trades at 1.3713 with the US on holiday.
This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.