Following Trump’s tariffs pause announcement yesterday, risk assets rallied hard with record breaking moves. Within the risk assets category, there’s of course bitcoin. The cryptocurrency followed stocks higher, appreciating by 12%.
Bitcoin is driven by liquidity and growth expectations, which are the same drivers of equities and that’s why there’s a correlation with the S&P 500 or the Nasdaq.
The tariffs pause eased growth fears and we saw a quick bounce in risk assets as a consequence. Even if we are not out of the woods yet, I’d say that this new development showed that Trump just wanted to reset global trade barriers and lower them for everyone (Europe has been even calling for 0 for 0 tariffs). If he succeeds, that’s bullish for global growth, stocks and bitcoin.
In the Trump 2.0 era conditions change quickly, so we should always be on top of things, but all else being equal, I think the chances are skewed to the upside for bitcoin, and more so if US and China start negotiations.
On the 1 hour chart below, we can see that bitcoin bounced near a key support around the 73,800 level and eventually shot higher to the 83,000 level following Trump’s announcement. The price is now approaching a key trendline which has been defining the bearish structure since February.
The sellers will likely lean on the trendline with a defined risk above it to position for a drop into the 70,000 level next
