From a fundamental perspective, bitcoin and stocks remain skewed to the upside due to positive growth expectations amid de-escalating trade war and global fiscal and monetary easing.
There are mainly three risks for the cryptocurrency ahead: the failure
of Trump’s tax bill, renewed trade war after the July’s deadline or
increased inflation fears that trigger a hawkish repricing in interest
rates expectations.
This week we have US-China trade talks (which are expected to be positive) and the US CPI report tomorrow. Watch out for the CPI because higher than expected figures could trigger a hawkish repricing in interest rates expectations and lead to a correction into the FOMC decision next week.
On the 1 hour chart, we can see the breakout and the subsequent increase in the bullish momentum. If the price pulls back into the trendline, we can expect the buyers to lean on it with a defined risk below it to position for further upside. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break lower to start targeting the 100,000 level again.
A lower than expected CPI should keep bitcoin supported into new highs, while higher than expected figures could trigger a correction into the 100,000 level
