Alongside the decision, the central bank published the first iteration of its expanded forward-guidance scheme, providing a clearer window into policymakers’ near-term rate thinking.
The six-month dot plot, based on 21 projections (three per board member), shows the distribution clustered tightly around the current setting. Sixteen of the 21 projections sit at 2.50%, signalling that most policymakers see the base rate unchanged through the next half year. A smaller dovish minority is visible: four projections point to 2.25%, indicating some members see a possible cut scenario if conditions evolve in that direction. By contrast, only one projection sits at 2.75%, suggesting limited conviction behind near-term tightening.
On the macro backdrop, the BOK said growth momentum should remain favourable, pointing to strong semiconductor exports as a key support. At the same time, it emphasised it will make policy decisions in a way that supports the economic recovery while closely monitoring changes in domestic and external policy conditions and their knock-on effects for inflation and financial stability.
Risk language stayed focused on the usual pressure points. The BOK flagged geopolitical risks and tariffs externally, and reiterated the need for caution on housing prices, household debt and exchange-rate volatility domestically
