Rather than providing a traditional base-case projection, the Bank of Canada has presented two illustrative scenarios to account for the uncertainty around US trade policy.
The Bank of Canada had previously signaled it would revise down its 2025 GDP forecasts, and indeed, in Scenario 1 (where most tariffs are eventually negotiated away), growth is projected at 1.6% for 2025, down from previous estimates at 1.8%
Bank of Canada reworks MPR to offer two different tariff scenarios