September 13, 2024 at 05:33PM Boeing machinists went on strike after rejecting a 25% pay raise.That is shuttered the going manufacturing plant Here are the main points from the Boeing CFO’s statement Strike Impact: Strike will jeopardize recovery, impact production and deliveries Cash Conservation: Laser-like focus on actions to conserve cash Union Negotiations: Want to get back to the table and reach an agreement Production Goals: Getting to 38/month by end of year will take longer Inventory Levels: About 70 aircraft left in inventory at shadow factory Supply Chain Constraints: Broadly impacting the industry, affecting deliveries Specific Production Impacts: 787 deliveries below 5/month due to seat shortage Lower 777 deliveries due to engine supply issues Defense Unit: Q3 margins to be negative The last strike lasted 58 days. Fitch is now out saying that if the strike is extended it could impact Boeings ratings (cut to junk status). Shares are down -3.1% at $157.80. For the trading year, the stocks is down close to 40% on the year. The consistently negative Boeing headlines takes the headline away from Intel. It’s shares are down nearly 61% on the year. The third worst performer of the Dow stocks is Nike down -27.6% in 2024 PS. Moody’s now joins Fitch on a downside credit watch. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
That’s a wrap for the European stock markets.
September 13, 2024 at 04:55PM That’s a wrap for the European stock indices for the trading week, and then ended the day with gains, and the week with gains as well. For the trading day: German DAX +0.92% France’s CAC, +0.41%. UK’s FTSE 100 +0.39% Spain’s Ibex, +1.23% Italy’s FTSE MIB +0.34% For the trading week: German DAX +2.11% France’s CAC +1.54% UK’s FTSE 100 +1.12% Spain’s Ibex +3.29% Italy’s FTSE MIB +0.83% Looking at European benchmark 10 year yields: Germany 2.149%, -5.3 basis points France 2.839%, -6.0 basis points UK 3.770%, -14.7 basis points Spain 2.943%, -8.8 basis points Italy 3.513%, -7.2 basis points As London/European traders had for the exits, US stocks are higher in trading near highs for the day: Dow industrial average up 421 points or 1.02% at 41517.50 S&P index up 37.40 points or 0.67% at 5633.10. NASDAQ index up 113.3 points or 0.65% at 17683.94 Russell 2000 up 49.21 points or 2.31% at 2178.64. . That is its largest gain since August 23. Boeing shares are down -0.50% as machinists go on strike. J.P. Morgan is the other Dow 30 stock negative on the day (-0.60%). IBM, Caterpillar, and Intel lead the gainers with gains of around 2%. Looking at the US debt market: 2-year yield 3.599%, -4.9 basis points 5-year yield 3.439%, -2.6 basis points 10 year yield 3.662%, -1.7 basis points 30 year yield 3.992%, -0.3 basis points Gold is on pace for another record close. It’s price is up $22 or 0.87% at $2581. For the trading week gold is up 3.37% on a gain of $84 Silver is up $0.96 or 3.24% at $30.91. Silver is up 10.38% this week with a gain of $2.90 Crude oil is trading up $0.30 at $69.38. Crude oil is up 1.92% with a gain of $1.31. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
Paulson on CNBC: He favors a 50 basis point cut by the Fed
September 13, 2024 at 04:35PM John Paulsen made a killing by calling the 2008 housing market bubble. A supporter of GOP candidate Trump, he is on CNBC given an interview. He says it is a good time for investing We did have a bubble in government debt (negative interest rate times), but does not see it anymore He favors a 50 basis point cut from the Fed next week He thinks the tipping point from the national debt could put pressure on the financial markets (US yields). If we continue to run high deficits and increase taxes that would hurt the economy. We will see a crash if see 40% capital gains taxes, tax on unrealized gains, and if the Trump tax cuts expire under a Harris presidency. If Harris won, he would be more in cash and keep his investment in Gold (gold is at a record level) The major reason gold is rising as have less confidence in paper money. 10% in gold would be a prudent amount for investors. The markets depend on who is elected. Thinks stocks will go up, interest go do, earnings go up and have a robust economy if Trump elected President This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
USDCAD a little higher on the week but gives up gains. What’s ahead for the pair?
September 13, 2024 at 04:27PM The USDCAD closed the week at 1.3558. The current price is a little higher at 1.3580. The high price for the week reached 1.3622 on Wednesday. That move took the price above a swing area with the high at 1.36188, but quickly reversed lower. The high price stalled ahead of the 38.2% of the move down fro the August 2024 high at 1.3633. Not getting above that retracement is a problem from the pair. The move down has the price above and below the 100-hour moving average today. That moving average is moving sideways at 1.35804. The price is trading right around that level currently. Going forward, traders favoring the topside would like to see the price get back above the swing level up to 1.36188 and ultimately above the 38.2% retracement 1.32633. What would hurt the bullish bias is selling takes price back below the 200 hour moving average at 1.3555. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
AUDUSD steps higher with ups and downs (to technical support) providing the roadmap
September 13, 2024 at 03:44PM The AUDUSD is higher for the week after dipping lower earlier in the week where the 200 day moving average stalled the fall. The subsequent move to the upside was able to extend above resistance rotated back down toward support and extend above resistance and and step pattern defined by technical levels. Today the run higher stalled just ahead of the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 0.67329. The move to the downside found support against support defined by a swing level at 0.6696 and the 200-hour moving average at 0.6694. The price has bounced back higher and trades between the 100 bar moving average on the 4-hour at 0.67329, and the 0. 6694 level. If the roadmap continues, a break of the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart will be eyed. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
Kickstart the FX trading day for Sept 13 w/a technical look at the EURUSD USDJPY & GBPUSD
September 13, 2024 at 02:15PM In the kickstart video, for September 13, 2024, I take a look at three other major currency pairs – the EURUSD, USJDPY and GBPUSD. For the EURUSD, it moved to a swing area between 1.10976 and 1.11042 and found willing sellers. That area will be a key resistance level today and going forward. Move above is more bullish. Stay below and the price could rotate back down toward its 200 hour moving average at 1.1058. For the USDJPY, it fell to low of 140.358. That got within about 10 pips of in the December 2023 low of 140.25. Buyers leaned against the low and push the price back up. With a double bottom, is the bottom in place?. The price is trading above and below the low price from January 2, 2024 at 140.80. That was the low price for the year until Wednesday when the price move down to 140.70. Will that be a barometer for buyers and sellers today as well? The GBPUSD traded above its 100 bar moving average on the four hour chart at 1.31395. That level will be a barometer for both buyers and sellers in trading today and going forward. On the downside watch the 200 hour moving average of 1.3110. Move below that level and I would expect further downside probing. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
Canada capacity utilization Q2 79.1% vs 78.6% last quarter
September 13, 2024 at 01:31PM Prior quarter: 78.5% revised to 78.6% Details: Canadian industries operated at 79.1% capacity in Q2 2024. This is a slight increase from 78.6% in Q1 2024. The Q1 2024 capacity utilization was revised up by 0.1 percentage point. Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction Capacity utilization increased by 1.6 percentage points to 77.2% in Q2. Growth driven by higher activity in oil sands extraction (following resumption after maintenance) and support activities for mining and oil and gas extraction. Construction Capacity utilization decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 82.4% in Q2. Decline attributed to a downturn in residential building construction. Manufacturing Capacity utilization rose by 0.5 percentage points to 77.6% in Q2. Increase led by computer and electronic product manufacturing (+5.1 percentage points) and wood product manufacturing (+2.9 percentage points). This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
Canada July wholesale sales 0.4% versus -1.1% expected
September 13, 2024 at 01:30PM Prior month -0.6% Details of wholesale sales which rose 0.4% versus -1.1% expected: Wholesale sales (excluding petroleum, petroleum products, other hydrocarbons, oilseed, and grain) grew by 0.4% to $82.7 billion in July. Sales increased in four of the seven subsectors. Growth was led by the agriculture supplies industry group (miscellaneous subsector) and the food, beverage, and tobacco subsector. Wholesale sales were 1.1% higher in July compared to the same month one year earlier. In volume terms, wholesale sales increased by 0.5% in July inventories rise by 0.5% versus -0.1% in June: Wholesale inventories rose by 0.5% to $127.5 billion in July, following a 0.1% decline in June. Increases were recorded in four of the seven subsectors. The machinery, equipment, and supplies subsector led the growth, up 1.0% to $39.4 billion, 3.9% higher than a year earlier. The motor vehicle and motor vehicle parts and accessories subsector saw a 2.0% increase to $17.3 billion. Inventory declines were noted in the personal subsector (-0.8% to $20.1 billion) and the building material and supplies subsector (-0.5% to $22.0 billion). The inventory-to-sales ratio remained unchanged at 1.54 in July, indicating the time required to deplete inventories if sales stay constant. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
US August import prices -0.3% versus -0.2% estimate. Export prices -0.7% vs -0.1% estimate
September 13, 2024 at 01:30PM Import prices prior month: +0.1% Export price prior month: was 0.7% revised to us 0.5% Import prices MoM -0.3% % vs -0.2% estimate Export prices MoM -0.7% vs -0.1% estimate Import prices YoY 0.8% vs 1.6% last month Export prices YoY -0.7% vs 1.4% last month For the full report CLICK HERE Details: Overall Imports U.S. import prices fell by 0.3% in August, the largest monthly decline since December 2023 (-0.7%). Despite the August decrease, import prices rose 0.8% over the past year. The last 12-month decline in import prices was recorded in February 2024. Fuel Imports Import fuel prices decreased by 3.0% in August, following a 1.1% increase in July. August’s 3.0% decline was the largest since December 2023 (-8.0%). The decline was driven by lower prices for petroleum and natural gas. Import fuel prices fell 4.6% over the year, marking the first 12-month decline since February 2024. Petroleum prices decreased by 3.2% in August and 3.2% over the past year, the largest 12-month drop since January 2024. Import natural gas prices fell 3.7% in August, following a 2.0% rise in July, and dropped 51.7% over the past year, the largest 12-month decline since January 2024. Imports Excluding Fuel Prices for nonfuel imports edged down 0.1% in August, after rising 0.1% in July and 0.2% in June. Declines in nonfuel industrial supplies and materials, consumer goods, and foods, feeds, and beverages offset higher capital goods prices. Nonfuel import prices increased by 1.3% over the past 12 months, with the last annual decline in February 2024. Overall Exports U.S. export prices fell 0.7% in August after a 0.5% increase in July. The decline was driven by lower prices for both nonagricultural and agricultural exports. Export prices decreased 0.7% over the past year, marking the first annual drop since April 2024. Agricultural Exports Agricultural export prices declined 2.0% in August, the second consecutive month of a 2.0% drop. The declines in August and July were the largest since a 2.3% decrease in May 2023. A 9.8% drop in soybean prices led the August decline, along with lower prices for corn, wheat, and fruit. Higher nut prices partially offset the declines. Agricultural export prices fell 6.9% over the past year. Exports Excluding Agriculture (Nonagricultural Exports) Nonagricultural export prices decreased 0.6% in August, following a 0.8% increase in July. The decrease was due to lower prices for nonagricultural industrial supplies, materials, and capital goods, offsetting higher prices for consumer goods, automotive vehicles, and nonagricultural foods. Nonagricultural export prices fell 0.1% over the past year, the first annual decrease since March 2024. Nonagricultural Industrial Supplies and Materials Prices for nonagricultural industrial supplies and materials declined 1.1% in August after a 1.9% rise in July. The August decrease was mainly due to a 2.9% drop in export fuel prices. Prices for these goods fell 1.6% over the past year, the largest 12-month decline since March 2024. Finished Goods Prices for finished goods exports were mixed in August. Capital goods prices fell 0.2%, the first decline since November 2023, led by a 3.0% drop in semiconductor prices. Consumer goods prices rose 0.1% in August after declining 0.1% in July and 0.3% in June. Automotive vehicle prices increased 0.1% in August, following a 0.3% rise in July, driven by higher prices for trucks, buses, and special-purpose vehicles. 4o This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
China August M2 money supply 6.3% vs 6.2% y/y expected
September 13, 2024 at 12:34PM Prior +6.3% New yuan loans ¥900 billion Prior ¥260 billion China’s bank lending tumbled in July to its lowest in almost 15 years but it seen rebounding back a little in August, though estimates were expecting it to climb back up to around ¥1.0 trillion. Looking at the year-to-date figure, China’s new yuan loans is totaling up ¥14.43 trillion so far. Overall, I would argue that it still points to credit demand still being rather lackluster and the PBOC possibly has to do more as such to drive a resurgence in that area i.e. more rate cuts. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.