September 14, 2024 at 04:21AM China retail sales, industrial output, investment data for August 2024 – another round of disappointing results. Retail Sales +2.1% (YoY) (Aug) expected 2.5%, prior 2.7% Industrial Production +4.5% (YoY) (Aug) expected 4.8%, prior 5.1% Fixed Asset Investment +3.4$(YTD) (YoY) (Aug) expected 3.5%, prior 3.6% Unemployment 5.3% expected 5.2%, prior 5.2% Also published were home prices data, which fell at their sharpest rate in 9 years, at -5.3% y/y in August, compared with the previous month’s -4.9%. For the m/m, down 0.7% (July was also -0.7% m/m) China’s property sector continues to be a black hole for the economy. Piecemeal stimulus looks set to continue: Reports that China set to cut interest rates on more than $5 trln of outstanding mortgages China has a growth target of ‘around 5%’ this year. China invariably hits its growth target, officially anyway. — China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) painted an upbeat picture. In August, under the strong leadership of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC) with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core, all regions and departments strictly implemented the decisions and arrangements made by the CPC Central Committee and the State Council. All regions and departments adhered to the general principle of pursuing progress while ensuring stability, fully and faithfully applied the new development philosophy on all fronts, strengthened macro-regulation and strove to promote high-quality development. As a result, the production and demands sustained a recovery, employment and prices were basically stable, and high-quality development continued to move ahead. The national economy maintained stability in general while making steady progress. These are the main headings from the statement: 1. Industrial Production Increased Steadily with Fast Growth in Equipment Manufacturing and High-Tech Manufacturing. 2. Service Sector Continued to Recover and Modern Services Developed Well. 3. Market Sales Kept Increasing and Online Retail Sales Grew Rapidly. 4. Investment in Fixed Assets Scaled up and Investment in High-Tech Industries Grew Fast. 5. Imports and Exports of Goods Grew Fast and Trade Structure Continued to Optimize. 6. Employment Was Generally Stable and Urban Surveyed Unemployment Rate Increased Slightly. 7. Increase of Consumer Price Expanded and Producer Prices for Industrial Products Declined. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.
Goldman Sachs sees a 25 basis point cut from the Fed next week
September 13, 2024 at 08:30PM Goldman Sachs is keeping it 25 basis point cut forecast for the Fed next week. They also see cuts of 25 basis points in both November and December. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
What are the technicals in the EURUSD saying into the new trading week
September 13, 2024 at 08:28PM As the week, moves to the close, what are the technicals telling traders going into the new trading week. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
Next week will be dominated by the FOMC rate decision.
September 13, 2024 at 08:22PM Monday, September 16 (ET) 8:30am ET: US Empire State Manufacturing Index (Forecast: -4.1, Previous: -4.70) Tuesday, September 17 (ET) 5:00am ET: German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Forecast: 17.2, Previous: 19.2) 8:30am ET: CAD CPI m/m (Forecast: 0.1%, Previous: 0.4%) 8:30am ET: US Core Retail Sales m/m (Forecast: 0.2%, Previous: 0.4%) 8:30am ET: US Retail Sales m/m (Forecast: -0.2%, Prvious: 1.0%) Wednesday, September 18 (ET) 2:00am ET: UK CPI y/y (Forecast: 2.2%, Previous: 2.2%) 8:30am ET: Building Permits (Forecast: 1.41M, Previous: 1.40M) 2:00pm ET: Federal Funds Rate (Forecast: 5.25%, Previous: 5.50%) 2:30pm ET: Fed Reserve Press conference 8:45 PM ET: NZ GDP QoQ: Forecast -0.4%. Previous +0.2% 9:30 PM ET: AUD Employment Change: Forecast 25.8K.Previous 58.2K. Unemployment rate: Forecast 4.2%. Previous 4.2% Thursday, September 19 (ET) 7:00 AM ET: BOE interest rate decision: Forecast 5.00%. Previous 5.00% 8:30am ET: US Unemployment Claims (Forecast : 232K, Previous: 230K) 8:30am ET: US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index (Forecast : -0.6, Previous: -7.0) 10:00am ET: US Existing Home Sales (Forecast: 3.89M, Previous: 3.95M) Friday, September 20 (ET) Tentative: BOJ Policy Rate (Forecast:
Crude oil futures settled at $68.65
September 13, 2024 at 07:48PM Crude oil futures is settling at $68.65. That is down $0.32 -0.46%. The high price reached $70.32. The low price was at $68.50 THe selling into the settlement took the price below the 200 hour MA at $68.91. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
ECB’s Makhlouf: ECB is not pre-committing to a particular rate path.
September 13, 2024 at 07:21PM The comments are in line with the views expressed by ECBs Lagarde. The ECB is sittiong on the fence and waiting. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
Go big or go small? JP Morgan reiterates its call for 50 basis point cut next week.
September 13, 2024 at 06:54PM To cut, or not to cut 50 basis points. As the Federal Reserve’s September meeting approaches, JP Morgan reiterates its call for a 50 basis point cut, scheduled for Wednesday at 2 PM ET. Following Nick Timiraos’ article highlighting the Fed’s predicament, market odds have shifted from 20-80 to a nearly even 50-50 split. Former Fed members Dudley and Mester have publicly weighed in, with Mester open to a 50 basis point cut and Dudley explicitly supporting it. While the Fed is in a blackout period, market observers wonder if “friends and old family members” might be sending subtle messages on behalf of the Fed Chair. The spread between the Fed funds rate and inflation rate supports a cut, and the Fed is aware of the lag effect from policy changes. Recent CPI and PPI data were unsurprising, but analysts predict a core PCE increase of 0.13-0.17% for the month by piecing together the clues from each, indicating lower inflation. Political developments will be closely watched, but pundits anticipate a split on Capitol Hill, which could contain potential changes. The shift has helped the stock market this week. The Nasdaq is now up 6.14% this week which wiped out the -5.77% decline last week. The gain is the largest since October 2023 when the index rose 6.61%. The S&P this week is up 4.20% which nearly equates to the decline of -4.25% last week. THe gain this week is also on track for the best in 2024 (and best since October 2023).In the US debt market, The 2 year yield is down another -7.6 basis points this week after tumbling -27 basis points last week. The 10 year yield is down -6.8 basis points after falling -19.5 basis points last week. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
CNBC’s retail monitor sees consumer spending cooling
September 13, 2024 at 06:12PM The CNBC retail monitor sees consumer spending cooling, but still higher: Retail sales ex auto and gas MoM: +0.5% versus +0.7% last month. Retail Sales YoY ex auto and gas: +2.1% versus +0.9% last month Core Retail Sales MoM: 0.2% versus +1.0% last month Core Retail Sales YoY: on .9% versus 1.7% last month Looking at the different components 7 were higher vs 10 last month: Gains were led by: Clothing and accessories: +2.1% Food services and drinking places: +1.7%. Nonstore retailers: +1.5% Losers were led by: Electronics and appliances: -0.9% Building and Garden Supplies: -1.3% Sporting-goods, hobby, music and bookstores: -2.9% This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
Baker Hughes rig count for the current week
September 13, 2024 at 06:04PM The Bakers Hughes rig count for the current week shows: Total rig up 8 at 590 Oil rigs + 5 at 488 NatGas rigs +3 and 97 This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
Crude oil trades into negative territory
September 13, 2024 at 05:48PM The price of crude oil is now trading in negative territory and $69.08. That is down from a high of $70.32. Looking at the hourly chart, the price action this week did move above its 200-hour moving average (currently at $68.93) on its way to the high today. That move higher today also exceeded above the $70 level and the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the August 24 high at $69.94, but momentum could not be sustained. In the last few hours of trading, the price action has seen a steady decline. The price is back down retesting the broken 200-hour moving average at $68.93. A move back below that 200 hour moving average would disappoint the buyers and could see further momentum with the price moving back toward its 100-hour moving average at $68.02. NOTE, yesterday a corrective move lower stalled against at 100 the hour-moving average and that hold helped to push the price higher. I would expect a retest today or next week, would find some stall near that target level. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.