Australia Q4 capex beats expectations as renewable investment lifts outlook

Annual growth lifted to 7.8%, with total quarterly spending reaching A$49.3bn, the strongest level since early 2015.

The composition of spending was constructive. Investment in buildings and structures rose 2.3%, supported by strength in renewable energy projects, including battery, wind and solar developments. In contrast, plant and machinery investment fell 1.7%, retracing part of the prior quarter’s data-centre-driven surge. Despite the pullback, equipment spending remains up 9.2% across the second half of 2025.

Importantly, non-mining investment has now reached a record high in real terms, a positive signal not only for Q4 GDP but also for Australia’s medium-term productivity outlook.

Forward indicators were encouraging. Firms upgraded their expected spending for 2025/26 to A$199.3bn, a 4.3% increase on the previous estimate of A$191.3bn. The first estimate for 2026/27 came in at A$158.4bn, suggesting roughly A$160bn in the pipeline.

The combination of renewable infrastructure expansion and ongoing digital investment underscores a structural shift in capital allocation across the economy

Australia Q4 capex beats expectations as renewable investment lifts outlook

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